Table 1.

Cumulative probabilities of projected lion population decline by one-third (33%) and one-half (50%) in periods of 5, 10, 20, and 30 y and three LGs defined according to the IUCN

PopulationSizep0.335p0.55p0.3310p0.510p0.3320p0.520p0.3330p0.530p0.333LGp0.53LG
Western-Central
 Yankari110.870.760.910.880.930.920.940.930.930.92
 Niokolo160.720.330.850.760.890.860.90.890.890.87
 Waza170.680.350.820.720.870.840.880.860.870.84
 Kainji320.560.330.690.60.750.710.760.740.750.71
 W640.20.10.340.230.440.360.480.420.450.37
 Benoue2000.170.080.30.20.390.320.420.370.390.33
Eastern
 Taita150.50.30.650.540.720.670.740.710.720.68
 Samburu260.150.070.250.170.320.270.350.310.330.28
 Nairobi300.060.010.190.080.340.230.40.310.350.24
 Laikipia600.10.010.370.150.590.430.660.560.60.45
 Luangwa940.210.10.360.240.450.380.490.440.460.39
 Matambwe1120.030.010.120.050.260.140.360.230.280.15
 Murchison1320.780.60.860.810.880.860.890.880.880.87
 Queen Elizabeth1440.160.060.360.20.540.40.60.510.550.41
 Tarangire1570.040.010.280.060.630.360.730.580.650.39
 Maasai Mara2860.260.10.50.310.650.540.690.630.660.56
Southern
 Kgalagadi*1150.030.010.110.040.210.130.280.190.220.13
 Kwando Chobe2850.110.060.190.130.250.20.270.230.250.21
 Makgadikgadi3270.10.050.160.120.210.170.230.20.210.18
 Etosha*4570.050.010.140.070.260.160.330.230.260.17
 Okavango11070.20.090.380.240.550.420.590.520.550.44
 Kruger*16720.20.120.30.220.370.310.390.350.370.32
  • Population sizes show most recent estimates of lion numbers. Extinct populations or populations unlikely to decline are not shown.

  • * Fenced population.