Table S1.

Individual results for the 23 replication studies in the first set of prediction markets

Ref.Study no.ReplicatedMarket priceSurvey resultWeighted surveyOriginal powerReplication powerp0p1p2
331No36.3349.3953.840.490.910.0550.3640.051
345*Yes71.73..0.90.950.2320.7410.982
351 (leadership)No29.9548.4952.630.500.560.0870.4890.307
366No79.9567.2167.740.910.950.2150.8330.208
374No41.7751.8553.510.730.890.0510.4380.083
382No30.559.862.710.630.860.0350.3150.063
392No34.6752.1551.490.640.90.0400.3490.053
402BNo29.0836.3935.060.500.990.0330.2560.004
412Yes83.973.9676.760.940.990.2170.8390.990
421No42.0955.5756.630.770.990.0410.3950.007
432Yes64.656.2259.60.610.990.1240.6340.972
443Yes67.3762.7463.150.990.990.0910.6640.975
454bYes67.4963.8564.220.960.990.0940.6650.975
461No39.157.1757.810.870.870.0390.4160.089
471No13.2237.5135.590.600.790.0100.1110.027
481No75.6666.872.140.490.940.2820.7940.196
495No44.8847.4350.730.520.840.0890.5050.147
504bYes75.3567.23680.620.950.2240.7820.986
511Yes76.3565.6668.410.990.990.1370.7590.984
521No39.5450.1349.890.800.910.0400.4020.060
534Yes59.5259.7259.910.910.990.0710.5800.965
542No14.433.9335.170.760.990.0070.1000.001
553No55.8253.9352.280.590.920.1060.5840.106
  • * For this study, the authors of the original study hypothesized and found a null effect, and the prediction market was for the prediction that this null result would be replicated.