Table S2.

Individual results for the 20 replication studies in the second set of prediction markets

Ref.Study no.ReplicatedMarket priceSurvey resultWeighted surveyOriginal powerReplication powerp0p1p2
563No83.0963.8766.540.920.90.3800.9190.543
571No80.6956.4256.050.840.90.3260.8900.461
582NA*39.7845.848.460.650.820.0600.452NA
595NA36.6331.7331.310.710.950.0370.351NA
601No41.137.7839.160.640.930.0520.4100.049
618No87.8673.0772.930.990.90.6620.9750.803
625No63.3548.6249.750.620.860.1720.7200.275
632NA*50.6550.5852.300.730.90.0740.537NA
645Yes43.2943.4843.590.440.880.0890.4610.938
651Yes76.5555.858.020.990.990.1390.7610.984
664Yes80.3251.3454.110.580.920.3570.8660.992
674No39.6248.3150.420.890.990.0320.3680.006
682Yes81.5965.2068.730.480.990.3140.8150.989
693No30.5535.9835.220.960.950.0200.2840.020
702Yes62.652.1651.190.940.970.0820.6260.970
711Yes76.1456.1156.760.870.980.1580.7650.985
721Yes42.6546.3446.220.990.990.0330.4010.930
734No79.6857.4458.540.580.950.2960.8300.204
741No68.2568.6171.770.990.990.0940.6730.021
753No42.2854.1655.650.920.990.0340.3970.007
761Yes42.8950.6252.330.990.760.0550.5340.946
  • * This paper had not yet been replicated when the paper was written.

  • The replicated experiment from the original paper was changed after the market had already been performed [change from experiment 5 (market) to experiment 1].