Table 1.

Cereal demand increase by 2050 and recent developments in cereal production and cropland area in SSA

CountryPopulation 2050 (million) (and as % of 2010 population)Cereal demand 2050 as % of that in 2010Cereal area as % of total current croplandActual maize yields (2003–2012) used in GYGA, tharvested ha−1Annual maize yield increase (1991–2014), kg⋅ha−1⋅yr−1Cropland area 2010, MhaIncrease in cropland area (2004–2013), Mha
Burkina Faso43 (275)304741.595.81.6*
Ghana50 (206)372341.716*4.60.7*
Mali45 (325)365601.960*6.41.4*
Niger72 (454)508700.8615.21.8*
Nigeria399 (250)314481.631*33.0−1.0
Ethiopia188 (216)237402.286*14.62.8*
Kenya96 (233)346451.9−45.50.5*
Tanzania137 (305)381441.2−911.94.0*
Uganda102 (300)396251.651*6.71.0*
Zambia43 (325)519352.355*3.50.8*
 Total1,175 (261)335491.930*107.013.6*
  • Medium fertility population projection in 10 sub-Saharan African countries by 2050, cereal demand 2050 versus 2010 [based on IMPACT (22) and UN medium fertility population projection (14)], cereal area as a percentage of cropland (%), actual (2003–2012) and progress (1991–2014) in maize yields (the former estimated in GYGA, the latter based on FAOSTAT; ref. 23), cropland area (2010 based on FAOSTAT; ref. 23) and trend in cropland area (2004–2013 based on FAOSTAT; ref. 23).

  • * Significant trend (P < 0.05).

  • Maize area in Niger was too small to include in GYGA; average yield is taken from FAOSTAT.