Table 3.

Expected probability of winning (average of all farms over the base period) and worst regret measures of a subset of the varieties

Case study and varietyProbability of winningWorst regret
Common bean (Nicaragua)
Local variety0.1300.023
INTA Fuerte Sequía0.1250.021
INTA Centro Sur0.0980.057
BRT 103-1820.0920.068
INTA Rojo0.0880.082
INTA Matagalpa0.0870.057
Durum wheat (Ethiopia)
Bread wheat (India)
K 9107 (Deva)0.0770.051
HD 29670.0680.047
HD 27330.0660.036
K 0307 (Shatabadi)0.0630.095
CSW 180.0420.073
HI 1563 (Pusa Prachi)0.0410.093
  • The results show how different criteria of variety selection can lead to different recommendations (best value according to each criterion is indicated in bold). Using the probability of winning as a criterion maximizes the average performance but ignores risk. Minimizing worst regret (the loss under the worst possible outcome) is a criterion that takes a conservative approach to risk.