Table 1.

Projected sea-level rise contributions from each ice sheet and combined

Year and ice sheetLowHigh
Mean ± SD50%5–95%17–83%Mean ± SD50%5–95%17–83%
2050
 PW01 SLR11 ± 8101–275–1815 ± 12121–386–24
 GrIS7 ± 552–183–119 ± 762–274–14
 WAIS7 ± 850–231–75 ± 640–181–10
 EAIS0 ± 20−4–4−2–10 ± 40−6–7−3–2
2100
 PW01 SLR32 ± 25263–8112–5367 ± 56517–17822–112
 GrIS19 ± 16132–577–3133 ± 30232–9910–60
 WAIS13 ± 168−3–442–2327 ± 3318−5–933–46
 EAIS3 ± 60−8–12−3–46 ± 172−11–46−4–11
2200
 PW01 SLR89 ± 72725–23130–149204 ± 2601305–75040–251
 GrIS49 ± 47345–14919–7977 ± 69553–21623–122
 WAIS37 ± 4526−24–1281–7680 ± 11351−25–324−3–138
 EAIS4 ± 152−15–34−6–1048 ± 1586−29–398−10–19
2300
 PW01 SLR155 ± 1371200–42647–259310 ± 32222514–98887–466
 GrIS78 ± 75557–23730–145130 ± 117987–34939–225
 WAIS67 ± 8844−47–2486–131117 ± 13683−36–3847–228
 EAIS10 ± 413−29–96−8–2463 ± 19510−53–498−14–51
  • Individual ice sheet and total sea-level contributions for both temperature scenarios and for the four periods considered: 2050, 2100, 2200, and 2300. All values assume the dependencies elicited for the 2100 H case. Because the PDFs are not Gaussian, the mean and median values differ; the latter is a better measure of central tendency. All values are cumulative from 2000 and include the baseline imbalance for 2000–2010 of 0.76 mm y−1. The AR5-defined likely range (17–83%) is provided alongside the 90% credible interval. PW01 denotes the performance weighted combination of experts based on their calibration score.