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Inaugural Article

Land-use and climate change risks in the Amazon and the need of a novel sustainable development paradigm

Carlos A. Nobre, Gilvan Sampaio, Laura S. Borma, Juan Carlos Castilla-Rubio, José S. Silva, and Manoel Cardoso
  1. aNational Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters, São José dos Campos 12247-016, Brazil;
  2. bCenter for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, National Institute for Space Research, Cachoeira Paulista 12630-000, Brazil;
  3. cCenter for Earth System Science, National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos 12227-010, Brazil;
  4. dPlanetary Skin Institute, São Paulo 05462-010, Brazil;
  5. eDepartment of Ecology, University of Brasília, Brasilia DF CEP 70910900, Brazil

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PNAS September 27, 2016 113 (39) 10759-10768; first published September 16, 2016; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1605516113
Carlos A. Nobre
aNational Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters, São José dos Campos 12247-016, Brazil;
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  • For correspondence: cnobre.res@gmail.com
Gilvan Sampaio
bCenter for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, National Institute for Space Research, Cachoeira Paulista 12630-000, Brazil;
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Laura S. Borma
cCenter for Earth System Science, National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos 12227-010, Brazil;
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Juan Carlos Castilla-Rubio
dPlanetary Skin Institute, São Paulo 05462-010, Brazil;
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José S. Silva
eDepartment of Ecology, University of Brasília, Brasilia DF CEP 70910900, Brazil
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Manoel Cardoso
cCenter for Earth System Science, National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos 12227-010, Brazil;
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  1. Contributed by Carlos A. Nobre, August 11, 2016 (sent for review April 4, 2016; reviewed by Eric A. Davidson and Johannes Dolman)

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Significance

The Amazonian tropical forests have been disappearing at a fast rate in the last 50 y due to deforestation to open areas for agriculture, posing high risks of irreversible changes to biodiversity and ecosystems. Climate change poses additional risks to the stability of the forests. Studies suggest “tipping points” not to be transgressed: 4° C of global warming or 40% of total deforested area. The regional development debate has focused on attempting to reconcile maximizing conservation with intensification of traditional agriculture. Large reductions of deforestation in the last decade open up opportunities for an alternative model based on seeing the Amazon as a global public good of biological assets for the creation of high-value products and ecosystem services.

Abstract

For half a century, the process of economic integration of the Amazon has been based on intensive use of renewable and nonrenewable natural resources, which has brought significant basin-wide environmental alterations. The rural development in the Amazonia pushed the agricultural frontier swiftly, resulting in widespread land-cover change, but agriculture in the Amazon has been of low productivity and unsustainable. The loss of biodiversity and continued deforestation will lead to high risks of irreversible change of its tropical forests. It has been established by modeling studies that the Amazon may have two “tipping points,” namely, temperature increase of 4 °C or deforestation exceeding 40% of the forest area. If transgressed, large-scale “savannization” of mostly southern and eastern Amazon may take place. The region has warmed about 1 °C over the last 60 y, and total deforestation is reaching 20% of the forested area. The recent significant reductions in deforestation—80% reduction in the Brazilian Amazon in the last decade—opens up opportunities for a novel sustainable development paradigm for the future of the Amazon. We argue for a new development paradigm—away from only attempting to reconcile maximizing conservation versus intensification of traditional agriculture and expansion of hydropower capacity—in which we research, develop, and scale a high-tech innovation approach that sees the Amazon as a global public good of biological assets that can enable the creation of innovative high-value products, services, and platforms through combining advanced digital, biological, and material technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution in progress.

  • Amazon tropical forests
  • Amazon sustainability
  • Amazon land use
  • Amazon savannization
  • climate change impacts

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: cnobre.res{at}gmail.com.
  • This contribution is part of the special series of Inaugural Articles by members of the National Academy of Sciences elected in 2015.

  • Author contributions: C.A.N. designed research; C.A.N., G.S., L.S.B., J.C.C.-R., and M.C. performed research; C.A.N. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; C.A.N. and J.S.S. analyzed data; and C.A.N., G.S., L.S.B., and J.C.C.-R. wrote the paper.

  • Reviewers: E.A.D., University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science; and J.D., Vrije Universiteit.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1605516113/-/DCSupplemental.

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

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Fate of the Amazon forests and the Third Way
Carlos A. Nobre, Gilvan Sampaio, Laura S. Borma, Juan Carlos Castilla-Rubio, José S. Silva, Manoel Cardoso
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Sep 2016, 113 (39) 10759-10768; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1605516113

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Fate of the Amazon forests and the Third Way
Carlos A. Nobre, Gilvan Sampaio, Laura S. Borma, Juan Carlos Castilla-Rubio, José S. Silva, Manoel Cardoso
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Sep 2016, 113 (39) 10759-10768; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1605516113
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Article Classifications

  • Physical Sciences
  • Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
  • Biological Sciences
  • Sustainability Science
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: 113 (39)
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  • Article
    • Abstract
    • Datasets Used to Derive Agricultural Sector GVA for the Brazilian Amazon
    • Climatic Variability and Extremes, and the Lengthening of the Dry Season
    • Climate Change: Global and Regional Perspectives
    • Impacts of Anthropogenic Drivers of Change in the Amazon
    • Modeling Efforts and Advances
    • Third Way as Paradigm of Sustainable Development for the Amazon
    • Implications of the Fourth Industrial Revolution for the Sustainable Development of the Amazon
    • Datasets Used to Derive the Fraction of Ph.D.s Trained in Brazilian Amazon Universities
    • Concluding Remarks
    • Acknowledgments
    • Footnotes
    • References
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